Is the current dry spell due to chance or climate change?

2004

Research organisaton

Trial details

Researcher(s) Harm van Rees (Cropfacts)
Year(s) 2004
Contributor Birchip Cropping Group
Trial location(s) Birchip, VIC
Is the current dry spell due to chance or climate change? locations
Aims

To discuss the common questions of are: ‘Is this dry spell a permanent feature? Is it just due to chance? Is it a periodic event?’

Key messages

This quick look at rainfall patterns does not prove whether there is, or isn’t, a change t to farming in the dry mid 1990s nwards. High rates of N and no fallowing worked during the wet periods but have ot worked very well in the last decade. We need to adapt our farming practices to prevent over-supplying inputs in low rainfall years. This must be done in a way which does not compromise potential yield if it turns out to be a wet season. We cannot change crop type once sown but can increase the proportion of cereals and fallow if there is no stored soil moisture at seeding. We can also reduce P rates in accordance with past applications and with potential yield AND we can delay N inputs until later on the season. Refer to numerous articles on these topics in this manual. occurring in our climate and rainfall patterns. It does show that, although not desirable, it is not unusual to have a run of dry years – it could be just chance or a normal periodic event. Other long periods of dry seasons occurred at the start of the 20th century (1897 to 1906), mid 1920s to early 1930s; and the longest dry spell between 1938 and 1950.

Lead research organisation N/A
Host research organisation N/A
Related program N/A
Acknowledgments N/A
Other trial partners Not specified
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Method

Crop type : N/A
Treatment type(s)
  • Adverse Effects Management: Drought
Trial type Article/commentary
Trial design Not applicable

Birchip 2004

Sow date Not specified
Harvest date Not specified
Plot size Not specified
Plot replication Not specified
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Trial source data and summary not available
Check the trial report PDF for trial results.
Observed trial site soil information
Trial site soil testing
Not specified
Soil conditions
Trial site Soil texture
Birchip, VIC Not specified
Derived trial site soil information
Australian Soil Classification Source: ASRIS
Trial site Soil order
Birchip, VIC Vertosol
Soil Moisture Source: BOM/ANU
Average amount of water stored in the soil profile during the year, estimated by the OzWALD model-data fusion system.
Year Birchip VIC
2004 281.0mm
2003 275.8mm
2002 240.1mm
2001 285.1mm
2000 290.6mm
National soil grid Source: CSIRO/TERN
NOTE: National Soil Grid data is aggregated information for background information on the wider area
Actual soil values can vary significantly in a small area and the trial soil tests are the most relevant data where available

Soil properties

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Climate

Derived climate information

No observed climate data available for this trial.
Derived climate data is determined from trial site location and national weather sources.

Birchip VIC

CAUTION: Trial site locality unknown; Climate data sourced from Birchip Cropping Group office location
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Some data on this site is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology

SILO weather estimates sourced from https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
Jeffrey, S.J., Carter, J.O., Moodie, K.B. and Beswick, A.R. (2001). Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data , Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol 16/4, pp 309-330. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00008-1.

Trial report and links

2004 trial report



Trial last modified: 22-03-2019 14:49pm AEST