Assessing the usability of Yield Prophet in the West Midlands region

2011
CC BY 4.0

Research organisaton
Funding source

Trial details

Researcher(s) Hellene McTaggart (West Midlands Group)
Year(s) 2011
Contributor West Midlands Group
Trial location(s) Badgingarra, WA
Badgingarra, WA
West Moora, WA
Assessing the usability of Yield Prophet in the West Midlands region locations
Aims

The demonstration undertaken at four on-farm sites seeks to test the Yield Prophet tool to determine its relevance and usefulness to growers of the West Midlands region in determining the most efficient and effective nitrogen strategy.

Key messages

FARMER COMMENTS

Usability of Yield Prophet

·         High input requirement to get detailed data out, but once it is setup the online format is easy to use and generates good reports.

·         Easy to use once you are familiar with the program.

Usefulness of Yield Prophet set-up process

·         Farmers commented that the exercise of opening up a deep soil pit was on one the most informative and useful aspects of the Yield Prophet process.

·         Good training with a consultant on how to use the tool was vital as well.

Yield Prophet reports

·         Farmers had mixed comments about the reports with each having their favorite report- one farmer chose to use only the crop report to make his decisions.

·         One farmer found the profit comparison report the most useful where as another found it the least useful report commenting ‘it is pretty obvious through the comparison report if the is likely to be a financial response, the seasonal risk is too great to compare nitrogen profitability to the last dollar.’

·         Farmers found the climate and weather aspects to the crop report of interest, specifically the breakdown of chances of certain weather characteristics influencing yield, however in reality this didn’t really clarify decision making.

·         The reports reference the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which is generally considered irrelevant to the Western Australia.

·         Growth stages of crops were very accurate for all sites.

Other aspects that limited yield

·         Three of the four sites experienced a three week dry spell that was accompanied by warm, weather at the beginning of September. The yield prophet crop reports at all three sites did not indicate that crop was experiencing moisture stress or heat shock. The three farmers commented separately that this dry spell had impacted the crop yield.

·         One of the potential issues is the assumption of root growth and rooting depth. If there is low soil nutrition at depth it is likely that the roots are "lazy" during the growing season and don't go as deep as the model suggests. This would then affect the modeling of water use down the profile and water stress on the plant.

·         One farmer generated a report on 26 September which indicated the crop was under moisture stress, however this did not convert to yield penalty in the crop report.

 

Future of Yield Prophet in West Midlands region

The low water holding capacity of sands in the West Midlands region means that the effect of short term dry spells has greater significance than total rainfall on production- this seems to be difficult to simulate in Yield Prophet.

Simulated yield on two out of the four sites was far from what would be considered an acceptable level of variation (1 t/ha for yellow sand and 1.85 t/ha for shallow loamy duplex). However the other two sites simulated yield very well.

Typical farm paddock of 60-70ha within the West Midlands region has multiple soil types present. At this stage Yield Prophet only allows the user to simulate one soil type per paddock. There is the ability to separately log each soil type however this requires a great deal of information input and the user has to pay a ‘paddock’ subscription for each soil type.

Unfortunately, there are very few soils classified in the West Midlands region, to WMG’s knowledge the five soils classified as part of this project are the only fully characterized soils in the West Midlands region. This project has estimated that the cost of fully classifying a soil is $3,000. When there is so few soil types classified in the West Midlands region coupled with farmers having multiple soil types (sometimes more than a dozen) on their farm this cost is the key barrier to adoption of this tool in the West Midlands region.

Lead research organisation West Midlands Group
Host research organisation West Midlands Group
Trial funding source GRDC BWD00019
Related program N/A
Acknowledgments

Sincere thanks to Dave Gartner (SoilTech) and Breanne Best, Angela Stuart-Street and Dirranie Kirby from DAFWA for the soil characterization.

Thanks to the Andrew Kenny, Peter Negus, Jeff Fordham and Ben McTaggart for being such willing and committed participants in this demonstration.


Other trial partners Not specified
Download the trial report to view additional trial information

Method

Crop type Cereal (Grain): Wheat
Treatment type(s)
  • Technology: Modelling
Trial type
Trial design

Badgingarra 2011

Sow rate or Target density 95kg/ha
Sow date 31 May 2011
Harvest date Not specified
Plot size Not specified
Plot replication Not specified

Badgingarra 2011

Sow rate or Target density Not specified
Sow date Not specified
Harvest date Not specified
Plot size Not specified
Plot replication Not specified

West Moora 2011

Sow rate or Target density Not specified
Sow date Not specified
Harvest date Not specified
Plot size Not specified
Plot replication Not specified
Download the trial report to view additional method/treatment information
Trial source data and summary not available
Check the trial report PDF for trial results.
Observed trial site soil information
Trial site soil testing
Not specified
Soil conditions
Trial site Soil texture
Badgingarra, WA Brown sandy loam
Badgingarra, WA Not specified
West Moora, WA Not specified
Derived trial site soil information
Australian Soil Classification Source: ASRIS
Trial site Soil order
Badgingarra, WA Chromosol
Badgingarra, WA Chromosol
West Moora, WA Tenosol
Soil Moisture Source: BOM/ANU
Average amount of water stored in the soil profile during the year, estimated by the OzWALD model-data fusion system.
Year Badgingarra WA Badgingarra WA West Moora WA
2011 212.7mm167.7mm439.6mm
2010 188.1mm147.5mm452.4mm
2009 221.7mm176.1mm453.4mm
2008 256.3mm192.9mm457.9mm
2007 189.6mm135.2mm429.8mm
2006 173.9mm142.1mm479.5mm
2005 249.5mm169.7mm449.0mm
2004 200.2mm128.0mm429.9mm
2003 222.6mm144.9mm435.5mm
2002 195.9mm140.2mm400.3mm
2001 169.1mm128.6mm390.3mm
2000 177.4mm161.9mm472.8mm
National soil grid Source: CSIRO/TERN
NOTE: National Soil Grid data is aggregated information for background information on the wider area
Actual soil values can vary significantly in a small area and the trial soil tests are the most relevant data where available

Soil properties

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Climate

Badgingarra WA 2011


Observed climate information

Rainfall trial gsr (mm) 497mm

Derived climate information

Badgingarra WA

Badgingarra WA

West Moora WA

Badgingarra WA

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Badgingarra WA

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West Moora WA

NOTE: Exact trial site locality unknown - Climate data may not be accurate
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Some data on this site is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology

SILO weather estimates sourced from https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
Jeffrey, S.J., Carter, J.O., Moodie, K.B. and Beswick, A.R. (2001). Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data , Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol 16/4, pp 309-330. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00008-1.

Trial report and links

2011 trial report



Trial last modified: 11-12-2019 14:51pm AEST