2007 Seasonal outlook


Research organisaton
Funding source

Trial details

Researcher(s) Michael Meuleners (DAFWA)
David Stephens (DAFWA)
Year(s) 2006
Contributor Birchip Cropping Group
Trial location(s) Birchip, VIC
2007 Seasonal outlook locations

To review the broadscale weather pattern and summarise implications for the 2007 cropping season, i.e. May-October.

Key messages

By the end of 2006 mature El Niño conditions were recorded in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most ocean-atmosphere models suggest that the Pacific should remain warm in the short-term with a gradually return to neutral conditions by mid-year. The DAFWA analogue year selection system has a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that there is a high chance of La Niña conditions developing by the middle of the year. In terms of wheatbelt rainfall, the analogues suggest that average rainfall is likely over summer and average to above average rainfall is likely between May and October. To the northwest of WA there has been a recent trend towards warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). If this trend contributes to an enhanced SST gradient to the northwest of Australia the confidence in enhanced northwest cloud-band activity and above average growing season rainfall would increase. The lesson from 2006 is that trends in SST in this region need to be closely followed.

Lead research organisation Birchip Cropping Group
Host research organisation N/A
Trial funding source GRDC DAW00087
Related program N/A

Funding for research has been kindly provided by the GRDC (Project DAW00087). Summary of climate models from the following websites: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSOsummary. shtml and http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html).

Other trial partners Not specified
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Crop type None: No crop specified
Treatment type(s)
  • Farm operations: Other
Trial type Article/commentary
Trial design Unreplicated

Birchip 2006

Sow date Not applicable
Harvest date Not applicable
Plot size Not specified
Plot replication Not specified
Psuedoreplication Not specified
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Trial source data and summary not available
Check the trial report PDF for trial results.
Observed trial site soil information
Trial site soil testing
Not specified
Soil conditions
Trial site Soil texture
Birchip, VIC Not specified
Derived trial site soil information
Australian Soil Classification Source: ASRIS
Trial site Soil order
Birchip, VIC Vertosol
Soil Moisture Source: BOM/ANU
Average amount of water stored in the soil profile during the year, estimated by the OzWALD model-data fusion system.
Year Birchip VIC
2006 283.6mm
2005 316.0mm
2004 281.0mm
2003 275.8mm
2002 240.1mm
2001 285.1mm
2000 290.6mm
National soil grid Source: CSIRO/TERN
NOTE: National Soil Grid data is aggregated information for background information on the wider area
Actual soil values can vary significantly in a small area and the trial soil tests are the most relevant data where available

Soil properties



Derived climate information

No observed climate data available for this trial.
Derived climate data is determined from trial site location and national weather sources.

Birchip VIC

CAUTION: Trial site locality unknown; Climate data sourced from Birchip Cropping Group office location

Some data on this site is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology

SILO weather estimates sourced from https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
Jeffrey, S.J., Carter, J.O., Moodie, K.B. and Beswick, A.R. (2001). Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data , Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol 16/4, pp 309-330. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00008-1.

Trial report and links

2006 trial report

Trial last modified: 20-01-2023 11:25am AEST