| Researcher(s) |
Michael Meuleners (DAFWA) David Stephens (DAFWA) |
|---|---|
| Year(s) | 2006 |
| Contributor | Birchip Cropping Group |
| Trial location(s) |
Birchip, VIC
|
To review the broadscale weather pattern and summarise implications for the 2007 cropping season, i.e. May-October.
By the end of 2006 mature El Niño conditions were recorded in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most ocean-atmosphere models suggest that the Pacific should remain warm in the short-term with a gradually return to neutral conditions by mid-year. The DAFWA analogue year selection system has a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that there is a high chance of La Niña conditions developing by the middle of the year. In terms of wheatbelt rainfall, the analogues suggest that average rainfall is likely over summer and average to above average rainfall is likely between May and October. To the northwest of WA there has been a recent trend towards warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). If this trend contributes to an enhanced SST gradient to the northwest of Australia the confidence in enhanced northwest cloud-band activity and above average growing season rainfall would increase. The lesson from 2006 is that trends in SST in this region need to be closely followed.
| Lead research organisation |
Birchip Cropping Group |
|---|---|
| Host research organisation | N/A |
| Trial funding source | GRDC DAW00087 |
| Related program | N/A |
| Acknowledgments |
Funding for research has been kindly provided by the GRDC (Project DAW00087). Summary of climate models from the following websites: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSOsummary. shtml and http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html). |
| Other trial partners | Not specified |
| Crop type | None: No crop specified |
|---|---|
| Treatment type(s) |
|
| Trial type | Article/commentary |
| Trial design | Unreplicated |
| Sow date | Not applicable |
|---|---|
| Harvest date | Not applicable |
| Plot size | Not specified |
| Plot replication | Not specified |
SILO weather estimates sourced from https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
Jeffrey, S.J., Carter, J.O., Moodie, K.B. and Beswick, A.R. (2001). Using spatial interpolation to
construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data , Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol
16/4, pp 309-330. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00008-1.
