To quantify the within-paddock variability of yields using records from paddocks in the Yarrawonga and Dookie areas and to quantify the impact of VRT-nitrogen on longterm, whole-farm financial risk.

• The use of variable-rate technology for nitrogen (VRT-nitrogen) application had mixed gross margin results given measured wheat yields, protein levels, calculated income and nitrogen costs in the nitrogen-rate trials undertaken at Yarrawonga and Dookie during 2017.
• Based on initial results at Yarrawonga and Dookie (using 19 and 13 years of wheat and canola yield responses to growing season rainfalls, respectively), the costs of conducting variable rate applications of nitrogen would require crop yields to increase by about 1%, or applied nitrogen costs to be reduced by at least 70%, before the approach breaks even over time.
• High overhead cost structures increase the risk of negative farm income. As VRT increases overhead costs, reviewing overall cost structures before adopting the technology is advisable.