• The Whole Farm Soil Mapping Project addresses the Caring for our Country and the South West Regional Natural Resource Management Strategy (2012 - 2020) targets to reduce the fertilizer and nutrient run off in to water ways through implementation of best practice fertilizer management on farms, as recommended in the Peel - Harvey Water Quality Improvement Plans (WQIP).

• In the dry season of 2001, lentils, field peas and canola yielded poorly whereas whet and barley yielded well.
• Hostile subsoil conditions limited the rooting depth of pulses and canola, while wheat and barley were more tolerant and able to extract moisture down to a dep of 1m.
• Pulses and canola will always struggle to perform in dry springs unless they are grown on soils where their roots can extrac soil water deeper than 50cm.

• The only way to accurately know your soil pH is to send a sample for a laboratory test (soil testing kits are available from the PIRSA Office in Kingscote).
• Have a look at the on-line acidity tools . They are easy to use and extremely helpful in guiding liming decisions.
• Liming will pay for itself, often in the first year. 
   

The reasons why barley at high sowing rate has the potential for high screenings are:

• Barley produces significantly more shoots per plant than wheat

• Grain weight decreases for each shoot

Hence because barley has many more shoots than wheat, and these extra shoots have smaller grain, the screening level in barley is often higher than in wheat In both crops it is possible to reduce the amount of tillering by increasing the sowing rate. For Silverstar wheat 2.2 shoots formed at a sowing rate of 60 kg/ha, at 120 kg/ha only 1.5 shoots formed. For Sloop barley the number of shoots also decreased but nowhere near as much (at 60 kg/ha - 5 shoots; and at 120 kg/ha - 2.8 shoots).

Hence even at the high sowing rate of 120 kg/ha barley still produced too many shoots and the contribution of the small grain in the third and subsequent shoots is too large a percentage of the whole sample which results in an overall reduced grain weight for the sample.

• Canola grown in wide rows (50-60cm) yielded well enough to consider this row spacing as an option.
• Canola plants were able to compensate for being sown in wide rows - biomass similar to narrow rows.
• We may be able to reduce input costs, seed and fertiliser by refining the production package in wide rows.
• Wide rows offer benefits of reduced fuel costs at seeding, easy stubble handling and safety of IBS herbicides.

• Canola grown in wide rows (50-60cm) yielded well enough to consider this row spacing as an option.
• Canola plants were able to compensate for being sown in wide rows - biomass similar to narrow rows.
• We may be able to reduce input costs, seed and fertiliser by refining the production package in wide rows.
• Wide rows offer benefits of reduced fuel costs at seeding, easy stubble handling and safety of IBS herbicides.

• Canola grown in wide rows (50-60cm) yielded well enough to consider this row spacing as an option.
• Canola plants were able to compensate for being sown in wide rows - biomass similar to narrow rows.
• We may be able to reduce input costs, seed and fertiliser by refining the production package in wide rows.
• Wide rows offer benefits of reduced fuel costs at seeding, easy stubble handling and safety of IBS herbicides.

• The main difference in yield may have been due to poor tillage in the 500mm spaced crop.
• The entire crop was reliant on the soil nutrition from the pasutre as no fertiliser was applied to the paddock prior to and following seeding.
• Later sowing of the trial may have jeopardised the wide row's yield capacity therefore it would be encouraged that when considering sowing in wide rows early seeding is preferable.
• It may be noted that if nutrition was not a limiting factor for the 500mm crop, the water supply from the wide row may have increased yield to similar or better than that of the 250mm crop.

The wide row treatments were closer to achieveing potential yield according to the French-Schultz equation.

• Amira albus lupin is a good break crop option for high and medium rainfall areas of the northern region
• Albus lupin grown in 44 cm rows yielded 81% of 22 cm rows.
• Maintaining a high seed rate maximised yield at both 22 and 44 cm row spacing’s.
• In dry conditions fungal disease were not evident, therefore we could not assess the impact of row spacing and density on foliar diseases.

The results, even after relatively good spring rains, support the idea of conserving soil moisture between wide rows and reducing drought effects.

• A combination of Monza and Sakura applied PSPE provided the highest levels of wild oat control (68%)
• Even with good control a high weed density remained (>200 plants per square metre) which would still be expected to cause significant crop yield losses (90%)

• Sakura alone or in combination with Avadex Xtra provided the highest levels of wild oat control (75%).
• Although Sakura treatments provided the highest level of wild oat control the high weed density remaining (>50 plants per square metre) would still be expected to cause significant crop yield losses (50%).

In 2014, an estimated 61 per cent of the seed bank germinated throughout the season, enabling a rapid reduction of the wild radish population and having a positive effect on grain yield. However, due to the long dormancy of the seed (six to eight years), 100 per cent control would be needed to eradicate the entire seed bank.

Approximately 30 per cent of the seed bank germinated as a result of summer rainfall; best practice is to make the most of seasons that deliver a summer break to get a good knockdown.

Aim to control 100 per cent of seed set by using multiple cultural, chemical and mechanical practices to eradicate the seed bank and stop resistance development.

Overall control of wild radish:

• 2-leaf only treatments achieved total control of the treated population, but with some minor subsequent germination after treatment final control was rated 91-92 percent.
• 6-leaf only treatments failed to control the treated population achieving final control of 80-86 percent.
• 2-leaf followed by 6-leaf treatments achieved total control of the original treated population and total control of radish that subsequently germinated.

 

• In many areas wild radish control requires two applications of herbicide.
• The first is early in the season to reduce the competition of the radish and the second is late in the season to reduce seed set.
• The choice of product required to reduce competition should be based on cost and potential for crop damage.
• For the late application to reduce seed set, 2,4D Amine is the preferred product.

Heavy trafficking did not reduce the grain yield of wheat in 2015 and crop development appeared faster with some trafficking.

Corack and Mace have topped BCG and NVT trials since 2011. Both have very good resistance to yellow leaf spot, making them suitable for wheat on wheat paddocks. Although Corack provides a lower risk for stripe rust, its APW quality rating will reduce its uptake by growers. Crown rot affected wheat yields in southern Mallee. Emu Rock has slightly better tolerance to crown rot than other varieties, which could also be linked to maturity. Grain quality (test weight and screenings) was exceptional across all trials however, low proteins would reinforce that crops required more N in 2013.

A number of consequenes of wind erosion are discussed.

Stubble height can have a significant impact on wind speed close to the soil surface. This can increase soil erosion in vunerable environments (sand hills).

Windrow burning can reduce small pointed snail populations by over 90%. If there are weeds or fallen stubble that are not burnt then snails can still be present in the paddock.

Windrow burning can reduce small pointed snail populations by over 90%. If there are weeds or fallen stubble that are not burnt then snails can still be present in the paddock.

To effectively establish windrows requires forward planning and potentially slows harvest tand increases harvest costs. Burn as early as conditions allow. Make it a priority job. Small rainfall events may germinate weeds in burnt areas that require attention before the whole paddock area.

• Under overhead irrigation in a relatively fertile rotation position (first barley after canola) the spring barley RGT Planet significantly out yielded the winter cultivar Cassiopee (10.07 vs. 8.98t/ha).
• Applying Moddus Evo at 400 ml/ha either as a single application (GS31) or split (GS31 & GS33) led to a significant increase in grain yield (9.87 – 9.92 t/ha) compared to the grazed or untreated plots (8.97 & 9.35 t/ha), averaged across both varieties.
• There was no interaction between variety and PGR application or grazing on plant height, lodging or yield indicating that both the spring and winter cultivar responded similarly.
• Cassiopee grew taller and was subject to significantly more lodging than RGT Planet.

• Both varieties showed positive responses to PGR applications of Moddus Evo (trinexapac ethyl) in terms of reduced crop height, lodging control and final grain yield.
• Grazing achieved a significant reduction in crop height (6cm) at harvest; statistically the same as the effect of Moddus Evo at either rate however it was associated with reduced yield and grain protein (data not shown).
• Grazing winter barley at GS30 produced significantly more dry matter than grazing spring barley that reached GS30 earlier in the winter (1928 vs 726kg DM).
• Unlike other trials conducted on cereals at the Finley site grazing did not reduce lodging in this experiment.
• A single application of Moddus Evo 400mL/ha at GS31 had significantly less lodging than the untreated plots.

• Spring barley germplasm cv Planet following canola with an estimated 146 kg N/ha available soil mineral N (0-90cm) gave a small response to applied nitrogen fertiliser with yield maximised (9.74 t/ha) with 80 kg of applied nitrogen per hectare.
• The highest yield (10.1 t/ha) was achieved with an application of 240 kg N/ha; however, this was not significantly higher than the yield achieved (9.74 t/ha) when 80 kg N/ha was applied.
• No lodging was observed in this trial.
• When 200kg N/ha or more was applied grain protein was higher than 12.0% and grain was no longer classed as malt quality.
• There was a significant increase in final dry matter production associated with 80 kg N/ha in comparison to the unfertilised (14.83t/ha increased to 17.7 t/ha).
• At higher rates of nitrogen, the dry matter steadily increased to 20.8 t/ha at the highest rate of 320kg N/ha.
• Since there were no significant yield increases associated with higher N rates harvest index (proportion of harvest dry matter harvested as grain) decreased at higher N inputs, however the differences were not statistically significant varying from 51.8 to 42.3%.
• There was no statistical difference in nitrogen offtake in the crop canopy at harvest in the grain & straw between 200-320kg N/ha applied an uptake of 238-292kgN/ha assuming straw and grain was removed from the paddock.
• N uptake associated with applied N rates above 160N were not translated into higher grain yields but were associated with higher grain protein.
• N offtake in the crop canopy peaked at 292kg N/ha when 280kg N/ha was applied.
• Head number was significantly increased by nitrogen applied although there were no yield increases associated with head numbers above 840 heads/m2 in this trial.

• Lodging began in early October with the general trend being more lodging as the N rate increased but not necessarily as a lineal progression.
• The uptake of N by the crop did increase as rates applied increased. This resulted in higher total biomass but not necessarily higher grain yield. Of the two rates assessed, the uptake of applied N was approximately 45%.
• Highest yielding treatments were those that received 80 – 280 kg N/ha. 0 kg N/ha or the highest rate of 320 kg N/ha resulted in decreased yield.
• While 120 kg N/ha did not see a yield increase over the 80 kg N/ha treatment, it did see grain protein high enough to meet malting specification.
• As a general trend, higher applied N resulted in higher grain protein and lower retention. Using the yield results from the 120 kg N/ha treatment, the Nitrogen Use Efficiency was 30 kg N required per tonne of grain.
• WUE of the trial averaged 19 kg/mm.

• Barley yields cv RGT Planet of over 6t/ha were achieved in 106 days from sowing to harvest with no applied nitrogen.
• Yield was maximised with no addition of nitrogen fertiliser.
• At the highest rate of 240 kg N/ha, there was a significant reduction in yield (6.03t/ha) compared to where no nitrogen was applied (6.24 t/ha).
• There was no difference in grain yield when nitrogen application timing was varied.
• Grain protein increased as higher rates of N were applied up to 160 kg N/ha. Between 160 and 240 kg N/ha, there was no difference in grain protein.
• The grain protein was too high to achieve malt quality in all application timings and rates of nitrogen in this trial.

• There was no interaction between nitrogen rates and nitrogen timing in this trial.
• With moderately high soil fertility following canola (146 kg N/ha available mineral N (0-90cm)) there was no significant difference in grain yield at N rates between 80 – 240kg N/ha (identical result to Trial 1).
• Delaying nitrogen application to GS32 (second node) and GS37 (flag leaf visible) gave a significantly higher yield (9.95 t/ha) than applying nitrogen at sowing and GS30 application (9.37 t/ha).

• Delaying the nitrogen applications to the development window GS32-GS37 increased protein slightly and although the effect was not statistically significant the risk of not achieving malt quality is increased at higher N levels.
• Grain protein increased as higher rates of N were applied, at 160 - 240 kg N/ha, protein was above the maximum 12% required to achieve malt quality irrespective of N timing.
• There was no significant differences in test weight (data not shown), although it was a factor in some treatments not achieving a malt quality grade.
• N uptake in the crop at harvest indicated that over 200kg N/ha had been taken up in the crop.

• Winter Graze n Grain Hybrids provide huge yields and multiple cropping & grazing opportunities
• SuperHyola® late Spring Hi-Biomass Hybrids show very high yield potential in the HRZ
• Triazine Hybrids show similar performances to the best Clearfield Hybrids
• RT® dual herbicide tolerant Hybrids show their value as a new competitive IWM management tool

1. Winter cover crops can improve ground cover, increase plant available water and improve subsequent cotton yields in pivot-irrigated systems.
2. The early spray-out treatment was the best cover crop for storing water over the short fallow in this study where cover did not have to last very long. However, the extra cover in the mid-terminated cover treatment continued to boost infiltration in the cotton’s
early growth stages.
3. All cover crop treatments improved the yields of cotton by approximately 3 bales/ha; well in excess of any gains expected from the increased fallow soil water storage.

• There is no significant difference between any of the sowing rates over 100 kg/ha this year, although the higher yields were obtained with the higher rates.
• This is probably due to the dry conditions killing off a large number of secondary tillers at the lower rates, while the increased plant densities at the higher rates with fewer secondary tillers resulted in more grain per hectare.

• While there is little difference between the results it would appear that the best sowing rate for winter wheat in the Hamilton District is between 100 - 120 kg/ha.
• Interestingly the higher rates were not significantly different from the standard rate in a dry year.
• What was evident was the increased number of weeds in the plots with the lower rates despite the plots all being sprayed at the same time. 

Early sowing resulted in excessive vegetattive growth and also provided excelelnt conditions for ryegrass that proved difficult to control.

• The average foliar fungicide treated wheat yields for the Mininera winter wheat trial were 4.60 t/ha. Rust activity was moderately low at the site in 2008, resulting in an average yield increase of 0.26 t/ha across all varieties from the one spray fungicide programme, with 2 of the 8 varieties achieving a 19% or more yield increase from a single fungicide applicaito - when compared to the untreated check.
• All 8 varieties achieved the F1 specifications basedo n the NACMA classifications, consequently quality had no effect on profitability. The highest yielding variety was CS95102.1 at 111% of the site mean, also the most profitable variety obtaining a gross margin of $776.40/ha.

• The average foliar fungicide treated wheat yield for the Dunkeld winter wheat trial was 5.24 t/ha. Disease pressure was high at the site resulting in an average yield increase of 0.75 t/ha across all varieties from the two spray fungicide programme, with 5 of the 8 varieties achieveing a 20% or more yield increase.
• The highest yielding variety was Mackellar at 126% of the site mean, also the most profitable variety returning a gross margin of $1,136.40/ha.
• BYDV management must be considered when growing susceptible varieties of wheat, employing techniques that also minimise the impacts on the predatory environment.

• The winter wehat variety trial yielded an average of 5.72 t/ha. Revenue had the highest yield with 6.67 t/ha after topping the 2008 Mininera variety trial. Mackellar again yielded well with 6.05 t/ha and was the highest yielding variety at Dunkeld in 2008.
• Most varieties were classified as feed wheats, and were all able to achieve this grade. Revenue had the highest gross margin of $750/ha, however consideration must also be given to the value of grazig these dual purpose varieties.
• For further take home messages please see attached trial report.

• The average yield for the Winter wheat variety trial was 3.03 t/ha. The highest yielding variety was Amorok with 3.81 t/ha.
• The shorter season varieties yielded well compared to the longer season varieties. This was a response to the rapid finish to the season, where the longer season varieties lost some yield potential during grain fill.
• The rapid finish to the season also reduced the grain quality, where test weight and screenings were the main reasons for downgrading.

• The average yield for the winter wheat trial and Dunkeld was 7.25 t/ha. The highest yield was achieved by Preston (8.19 t/ha) followed by Beaufort (8.11 t/ha) and Mackellar (8.06 t/ha).
• For further take home messages please see attached trial report.

• Scout and Mace continue to out-yield the rest of the pack at Witera.
• Oxford and Fathom (WI4483) break 3 t/ha under severe leaf rust pressure at Witera.
• Espada and Scout top Elliston yields in 2011.

• Look at stripe rust scores and yield with and without stripe rust control.
• Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV) had a large effect on yield at many sites.

The Wolseley “Cereal Challenge” is an initiative of the Wolseley Ag Bureau and funded by the MFMG. The challenge compares grain yields and quality of milling oats, durum wheat, bread and feed wheats and feed and malt barley varieties and the subsequent gross margin when all crops are grown side by side on the Wolseley flats.

Within species, the only significant difference in grain yields was between the bread wheats with Trojan being significantly higher
yielding than Hatchet CL Plus.

• Extremely dry conditions prevented cereals from expressing yield potential.
• No significant differences in yields between oat and wheat varieties.
• Compass barley significantly out-yielded Westminster
• Compass barley and Mace wheat were the highest yielding cereals.

The weather conditions in 2015 were extremely dry, and is thought that this may have impacted on the efficacy of the herbicides in this season.

Yields at this site were high, ranging from 6.1-7.2t/ha. There was a large spread in protein across the varieties (10.6-13.4) and screenings were below 5% for all varieties.

Sclerotinia stem rot (sometimes known as white mould) is an important disease of many crops around the world. On canola it can cause substantial losses, but a number of fungicides (mostly benzimidazoles and dicarboxamides) have been used in different countries for control. To date, sclerotinia has not been a major problem on canola in the Wimmera, but in adjacent areas it does cause losses. Furthermore, it may become more important in the Wimmera in wet years because of the increased cultivation of broad-leaved crops. All broad-leaved crops are susceptible to Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, the fungus pathogen that causes stem rot.

• No yield measurements were taken.

Agricultural crop film may be the future of agriculture. This project aims to understand the degradation process of polyethylene, as well as understand the effects on crops when covered with polyethylene.

Wheat, barley and canola were tested in 2018, and wheat and barley in 2019, representing a range of quality segregations. Trials were located close to Hyden, Kojonup, Jerramungup, South Stirling, Mt Madden, Munglinup, Gibson and Scadden and Salmon Gums.

The 2018 season was characterised by significant autumn rainfall and below average seasonal rainfall for most sites. The first time of sowing was seeded dry for most cereal and canola trials and the second sowing followed opening rains.

There was little evidence from the eight locations in 2018 to support the idea that the latest varieties differ in their response to increasing N and P inputs in wheat, barley and canola such that it could be exploitable by growers. Some interactions between variety and N and P nutrition were identified but responses were isolated and varied with crop and site. For example, significant interactions were measured for wheat yield at Gibson and protein percent at South Stirling; barley yield at Jerramungup, protein at Hyden, protein at South Stirling and screenings at Kojonup; canolayield at Gibson and oil content at Hyden.

In 2019 the Western Australian wheatbelt experienced a late start to the winter growing season and one of its driest. Data from the Bureau of Meteorology show all sites tested in 2019 experienced a Decile 1 season with well below average seasonal rainfall.

The 8 locations for wheat and barley in 2019 tested N rate and timing and supported the findings of 2018 with very little evidence to support the idea that varieties differed in their response to increasing N inputs. In fact, the opposite was true with the four varieties of wheat and barley tested responding in very similar ways for yield and grain quality.

The lack of consistent variety x fertiliser interactions in these environments suggests growers need only consider a crop and not specific varieties in their agronomic management.

N and P nutrition in 2018 and N nutrition in 2019 data supports current farmer practices of adequate basal nutrient upfront for the season, followed by post-emergent nitrogen as season and yield potential warrant.

Conclusions of this study are limited by the site-specific growing conditions and choice of varieties.

Take Home Messages

• Near perfect growing season for canola, provided ideal opportunity to assess the residual N feeding effect of the legumes.

• All legumes sown in 2016 – peas, lupins, sub clover and faba beans had similar starting soil N levels and soil water nitrate readings throughout the year which was reflected in similar grain yields inferring that all legume species were equal in terms of their N fixing capabilities.

• The average amount of N fixed by the legumes was calculated as ~86kg/ha.

• Growing adequately nodulated legumes can give rise to a ~1t/ha canola yield advantage compared with a non-legume.

• Linseed used more moisture, from a greater depth, than the faba beans in 2016. Resultantly more moisture was extracted by the canola crop sown on the faba bean stubble in 2017, and yet there is still more  residual moisture left.

Similar to trials undertaken in previous years, the fungicide trials undertaken in 2005 indicated there was no fungicide activity on Yellow Leaf Spot (YLS) when applied early post emergent (GS13 – three leaf stage). Fungicides applied to fertiliser or as a foliar application did not reduce the level of YLS in the crop and showed no yield benefits. Zincsol® applied to crops in paddocks which have had a good zinc fertiliser history also showed no benefit in reducing YLS pressure. After several years work the BCG conclude that spraying fungicides for YLS is not a successful practice.

Similar to trials undertaken in previous years, the fungicide trials undertaken in 2005 indicated there was no fungicide activity on Yellow Leaf Spot (YLS) when applied early post emergent (GS13 – three leaf stage). Fungicides applied to fertiliser or as a foliar application did not reduce the level of YLS in the crop and showed no yield benefits. Zincsol® applied to crops in paddocks which have had a good zinc fertiliser history also showed no benefit in reducing YLS pressure. After several years work the BCG conclude that spraying fungicides for YLS is not a successful practice.

• Fungicide applied at third node (GS33) gave significantly better yellow leaf spot (YLF) control and green leaf retention (GLR) than a tillering (GS23) application.
• The improvement in disease control with a single spray timing did not lead to a significant yield increase.
• There was a significatn yield advantage (0.27t/ha) when both spray timings were sequenced in a two-spray programme despite the low yield of the trial.
• The value of hte extra grain produced from two sprays was $69/ha, which covered the costs of the fungicides and their application.
• The net margin was great with Tilt than Prosaro largely as a result of Prosaro being a more expensive product.
• The best YLS control achieved with a foliar fungicide on the top three leaves was 65% control.

• Fungicide reduced disease levels in all varieties, but failed to eliminate disease completely.
• Observed differences in disease levels agreed with published variety resistance ratings.
• Early infection of yellow leaf spot (YLS) caused high yield losses in the more susceptible varieties.
• Variety selection will always play an important role in high risk areas.
• Crop rotation and best practice methods are required to maximise the benefits of correct variety selection.

• Significant variation in yellow leaf spot susceptibility exists between varieties of wheat commonly grown on the Lower Eyre Peninsula and this is correlated with significant yield differences.
• If sowing into stubble with a history of yellow leaf spot, it is important to make good management decisions to avoid yield losses.
• Choice of variety has more impact on yield than does fungicide management strategy, and is likely to lead to greater profit.

• Significant variation in yellow leaf spot susceptibility exists between varieties of wheat commonly grown on the Lower Eyre Peninsula and this is correlated with significant yield differences.
• If sowing into stubble with a history of yellow leaf spot, it is important to make good management decisions to avoid yield losses.
• Choice of variety has more impact on yield than does fungicide management strategy, and is likely to lead to greater profit.

No treatment resulted in any yield effects. No disease was detected on the controls throughout the season.

• Fungicide reduced disease levels in all varieties, but failed to eliminate the disease completely.
• Observed differences in disease levels were broadly in agreement with published variety resistance ratings.
• Yield losses were observed in the more susceptible varieties due to early disease development.
• Low disease levels from an early stage can cause yield losses.
• Variety selection will always play an important role in managing disease in high risk areas.

The best strategy against yellow leaf spot is to avoid sowing susceptible varieties in a wheat-on-wheat situation. The effectiveness of foliar fungicides for the control of yellow leaf spot is often variable; appropriate timing is crucial. In a low rainfall environment, it is rare to achieve an economic response when applying fungicides to control yellow leaf spot. Under the right seasonal conditions, YLS can reduce yields by between 5-10%.

• Seed size did not have a significant effect on Canola yield when planted 15-20mm deep.
• Cost differential of establishing a Canola plant stand can be substantial.

• Pasture cropping systems can provide grain (and out of season fodder) on deep sandy soils and reduce the likelihood of groundwater recharge.
• Potential yield penalties associated with pasture cropping across perennials on deep sandy soils in the west midlands appear to be less than 20%.
• Pastures started competing with the crop for soil water during grain filling, but impacts on soil water and grain yield were generally small given average rainfall in spring.
• During the crop growing season, there was little difference in soil water under annual crop, perennial pasture, and pasture-cropped plots.
• Soil water contents were much lower under pasture and pasture-cropped plots during summer and autumn.

• An increase of wheat grain yields released between 1957 and 2007 was found.
• Yields have increased because of improved harvest index, more biomass at flowering, and increased grain number.
• Nitrogen is critical in allowing each variety to reach its potential through increasing growth rate between stem elongation (GS31) and flowering.
• WUE has improved over the 1957-2007 timescale through increased yields, not greater extraction of water.

• Sowing date and variety maturity choice is a balance between the risk of frost versus terminal heat stress.
• Earlier sowing can increase frost risk, but also generally maximises yield potential and reduces the extent of yield loss from crown rot.
• Cereal crop and variety selection can have a significant impact on yield where there are high levels of crown rot infection.
• Durum wheat, barley or bread wheat varieties with increased susceptibility to crown rot, should only be grown in paddocks known to have lowrisk inoculum levels based on testing (e.g. PreDicta B).
• All winter cereal varieties are susceptible to crown rot infection and will not significantly reduce inoculum levels for subsequent crops. Cereal crop and/or variety choice is not the sole solution to crown rot.

• Yield loss to crown rot varied significantly among wheat and barley varieties ranging from 0.4 to 1.1 t/ha for wheat and 0.5 to 1.8 t/ha for barley.
• An understanding of the crown rot disease history of a paddock and choosing varieties with appropriate disease resistance ranking can improve crop yield substantially.

 

• APSIM, as a crop simulation model, can accurately estimate actual crop yield.
• The Yield Prophet builds on output tools based on APSIM simulations.
• Inputs returns that can be modelled to build a likely profit profile based on probability functions.
• Climate risk (hence production risk) can be modelled to project forward the likely seasonal outcome.

• Yield Prophet® in 2005 had many new features and capabilities and was delivered to 338 paddocks that were subscribed Australia-wide. From 5 April to 1 December, 6813 reports of various types were generated by subscribers, with most around time of top-dressing.
• Final simulated yields for wheat crops, using appropriately measured soil characterisation and initial soil data, fitted observed yields comparable to previous seasons (R2=0.74, 67% of simulated yields within 0.5 t/ha of observed, 98 % within 1.0 t/ha).
• Yield Prophet simulates yield more accurately than it does grain protein content.
• However, overall accuracy for all subscribed crops was lower due to expansion into new regions with less soil characterisation data available.

• 2007 was an unusual year and one in which playing the odds as they looked at the start and middle of the growing season did not pay off.
• When making decisions based on probability, be aware of the likelihood and consequences of downside risk.
• Our climate is changing; climate science is moving away from forecast systems that rely on the past to predict the future and investing its efforts in improving general circulation models.
• Yield Prophet in 2008 will be capable of simulating paddock-specific yields under climate change scenarios for 2030.

• APSIM simulations, accessed through the Yield Prophet web interface, were evaluated for their ability to forecast nitrogen fertiliser responses at the canopy management trial in the Wimmera.
• Yield Prophet accurately simulated crop yield and protein for a range of nitrogen fertiliser application rates and timings.
• Yield Prophet was able to estimate likely nitrogen fertiliser responses and dollar returns during the season.
• For accurate simulations Yield Prophet requires good soil characterisation data (crop lower limit, drained upper limit and bulk density) and pre-sowing measurements of soil water and available nitrogen.

The model was very accurate at the actual soil site location. Inaccuracies can be due to a number of reasons - namely weed burden at the site, frost, variations of soil type across the paddock and variations of rainfall received in the paddock versus the recording location. Furthermore, if the soil classification is slightly different in the model than is actually the soil physical properties, this could cause deviation as well. Lastly, as crop phenology can vary from cultivar to cultivar, this can cause discrepancy too.

Yield Prophet® saved many subscribers from over investing in inputs during the 2006 season. From early in the 2006 growing season, Yield Prophet® predicted that profitable yields in our region were unlikely.

The value of Yield Prophet® as a risk management tool is often overlooked because of a common perception that Yield Prophet® is only a nitrogen management tool to be used in good seasons. An analysis of Yield Prophet® predictions made throughout 2006 busts this myth.

• Average simulated wheat yields of the current ten year period are the worst on record since 1899 at the Birchip site.
• A comparison of the impacts of climate change in the past 30 years compared with earlier years provides no evidence of an effect on the wheat yields at this site.
• Given the ‘worst case’scenario itisforecastthat climate change will cause an increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall in the year 2030 reducing potential crop yields at this site.

• In the last simulation on 25th September, it was predicted there was a 50% chance of reaping at least 1.5t/ha of wheat at Hart, the actual wheat grain yield was 1.4t/ha.
• At no point during the 2008 growing season did the yield prophet simulation predict final wheat yields to be greater than 3.5t/ha, even at the highest level of risk (20%).

The actual wheat grain yield at Hart in 2009 was 2.46 t/ha, well under the final Yield Prophet prediction of 3.7 t/ha.

The actual wheat grain yield at Hart in 2010 was 2.46 t/ha, well under the final Yield Prophet prediction of 3.70 t/ha.